Different Strokes for Different Folks: Consultant Usage varies by specialty and experience

Digging Deeper in the Data

In my last post, I reviewed some general trends in the data from my survey of trial and graphics consultant usage by trial attorneys. As I mentioned in the last post, the survey is completely confidential and only takes about 2 minutes to fill out. Several lawyers responded to my invitation and followed this link to participate in the survey. As such, the data I review today includes a few more observations. The more the merrier, so please take the survey if you have not yet done so!

In perusing the data, I noticed a few interesting trends. These relate to how long a respondent has been practicing law, what kind of cases she handles and where her office is located. I now turn to some of these trends.

Youth vs. Experience

One might expect that young lawyers would be more likely to hire trial and graphics consultants because these folks have grown up in the "high-tech" era. Everything in their lives has been accompanied by fancy graphics and animation. These young lawyers also went to law school after the adoption of the interdisciplinary approach to legal education. A lawyer under 50 years of age is more likely to have been taught by dual-degree professors and might, therefore, have a greater appreciation for the value of psychology and other social sciences in litigation.

As illustrated in the graphs below, this expectation is not born out in the data.

Trial Consultant Usage by Attorneys

More than 15 years experience    Less than 15 years Experience

Graphics Consultant Usage by Attorneys

More than 15 years Experience       Less than 15 years Experience

Trial lawyers with more than 15 years of experience were much more likely to report having employed a trial consultant or graphics consultant than their younger colleagues. So, what do we make of these results?

I think that there are a few factors at work here. First of all, a more experienced litigator will have handled a larger number of cases. As such, she is more likely to have come across some case along the way that seemed to require the expertise of an outside consultant, with respect to either jury or graphics issues.

Second, more experienced litigators tend to handle the higher stakes cases. This is both because litigants with a lot on the line seek out experienced litigators and because large firms assign their highest stakes cases to their most experienced lawyers. These high stakes cases are the ones for which lawyers see the most justification for incurring the expense of a trial or graphics consultant.

Exactly one respondent indicated that she uses a trial consultant in more than half of her cases. She is also the one lawyer who said she uses a graphics consultant more than half the time. This litigator has been practicing for less than five years, supporting, at least anecdotally, the "new breed of lawyer" hypothesis.

Cost Conscious Courtroom Counsellors

In the previous section, I raised for the first time the influence clients can have on their attorneys' trial strategy decisions. The survey sample is made up almost entirely of three kinds of trial lawyers, with different kinds of clients. More than half of the respondents handle predominantly civil defense cases. The remainder is roughly evenly divided between plaintiffs' attorneys and criminal defense attorneys. The differences in reported trial and graphics consultant usage among these three groups is quite remarkable.

Trial Consultant Usage by Attorneys by Primary Practice Area

Civil Defense         Civil Plaintiff           Criminal Defense

Civil defense attorneys are very often hired by insurance companies, who are the ultimate deep-pocket, repeat players in the judicial system. Handling thousands of trials annually, insurance company risk managers understand the value of pretrial research, witness preparation and well-designed jury selection strategy. A litigator might not be inclined to reach out to a consultant for advice, figuring that she has all the tools she needs to win a case. When an insurance company claims supervisor tells that litigator to run a focus group study, she does as she is told. From a personal perspective, I know that many civil defense attorneys call me because an insurance company has told them to "get your jury guy on the phone and set up a mock trial." Under such an arrangement, the litigator incurs none of the cost associated with hiring a consultant.

By contrast, most plaintiffs' attorneys reported having never used a trial consultant. This should not be surprising, given that their clients tend to have less money to work with. In addition, many plaintiffs, having never been involved in a trial before, have unrealistic expectations about the cost of litigation. A plaintiff attorney is under enormous pressure to keep costs down. The financial situation facing a plaintiff attorney tends to differ from that of the defense attorney on the other side of the aisle. Many plaintiffs' attorneys are solo practitioners or members of very small firms, handling mostly small cases. When a high stakes case does come along, such an attorney faces severe cash flow problems financing the litigation. While such a lawyer might very much want to hire a trial or graphics consultant, she might simply not have access to the funds to do so. I know that many of us in the trial consulting community have attempted to implement creative fee structures to make our services more available to plaintiffs' attorneys.

The graph representing trial consulting usage by criminal defense attorneys is probably quite misleading. I head the New England Team of the pro bono initiative of the American Society of Trial Consultants (ASTC). In this capacity, I have been running free clinics for criminal defense attorneys here in Massachusetts. I know that 3 of the 5 criminal defense lawyers who report having used a trial consultant are folks I have personally helped as part of this pro bono initiative. I would need a much larger, and geographically diverse, sample to know how common it is for criminal defense attorneys to use trial consultants.

By comparison, the data on graphics consultant usage should be more reliable.

Graphics Consultant Usage by Attorneys by Primary Practice Area

Civil Defense            Civil Plaintiff          Criminal Defense

The discrepancy between civil plaintiff and defense attorney resource usage is even more pronounced with respect to graphics consulting. A quarter of civil defense attorneys reported hiring a graphics consultant for more than 20% of their cases. By contrast, three-quarters of plaintiffs' lawyers report never having hired anyone to design or produce courtroom graphics.

The one young lawyer, who indicated that she uses trial and graphics consultants in more than half of her cases, handles both criminal and civil defense cases.

From What to Where

We have now discovered differences in consultant usage among lawyers who handle different types of cases. Civil defense lawyers make much more use of trial consultants and graphics consultants than do their less well financed colleagues. We also know that in some areas of tort law, the defense wins 90% of jury trials. It would be purely speculative to connect this success rate with use of trial and graphics consulting services, but it is suggestive enough to warrant further study.

Fortunately, with the exception of criminal defense attorneys, the lawyers who completed this survey are distributed throughout the country. This will provide me an opportunity to explore whether there are regional variations in trial and graphics consulting usage. I will have to be mindful, however, of the trends I have uncovered with respect to seniority and practice area. If the lawyers in one region seem to hire a lot of graphics consultants, I will need to make sure that it is not simply because they are all civil defense attorneys.

Finally, I wish to explore whether there are any systematic variations in the types of services for which attorneys hire consultants. Is it mostly for jury selection in one region and mock trials in another? Do certain types of attorneys hire consultants to help with witness preparation more than others? I will address these questions, along with geographic variations, in my next post.

Trial Consultant Usage All Over the Map

The Survey at a Glance

Several weeks ago, I was in conversation with a colleague about the different approaches taken by various lawyers with respect to using trial consulting services. Some lawyers don't see any use for our expertise, or believe that their clients just can't afford to use us. Some lawyers employ the occasional consultant to run jury research, but really want a project manager more than an expert in jury behavior. There are many lawyers who will call in a trial consultant for the occasional case when she experiences uncertainty regarding a particular jury issue. Finally, there are a handful of lawyers who work with a trial consultant on virtually every case, finding their expertise to be well-worth the investment.

I commented, rather off-handedly, that I thought there were probably lots of regional differences. I think that differences in procedural rules (e.g. attorney conducted voir dire, ad damnum usage) and legal culture result in their being jurisdictions where litigators make great use of trial consulting services and others where attorneys rarely hire trial consultants.

I soon realized that this was a testable hypothesis. So, I went off to SurveyMonkey.com and crafted a short survey to investigate which litigators hire trial consultants (and courtroom graphics consultants) and which ones don't. I included questions about how long each respondent has been a lawyer, what kind of cases she handles, and where her office is located.

The survey is still live and I will be analyzing the data long into the future. So, if you are a trial lawyer, and you have not yet filled out the survey, please do so here. It only takes about 2 minutes and it is completely anonymous.

Spreading the Word

As many of you know, I am extremely active on LinkedIn. I posted a notice about the survey as a discussion on many of the groups to which I belong. I also tweeted an invitation to participate on several occasions. Finally, I sent out an email to everyone on my professional distribution list (formerly used for my newsletter, before it became this blog). I would conservatively estimate that at least one invitation to participate was seen by over 500 litigators.

Well, I wasn't offering to pay respondents. I wasn't raffling off an iPod or a timeshare in Maui. Lawyers are used to billing clients for every 6 minutes of their time and they are extremely sensitive to concerns about online privacy. So, the response rate was not great.

As of today, 37 people have completed the survey. Of these, 5 indicated that they were not lawyers (although a few might work for law firms in some other capacity). 28 of the respondents indicated that they heard about the survey on LinkedIn. 8 found out through email, and 1 via Twitter. Needless to say, any conclusions to be drawn from such a small sample will be speculative in nature. I do hope, however, that the results will give us something to build upon in the future.

Preliminary Results: Trial Consulting

I was careful in the survey to differentiate between "Trial Consulting" services, which deal with the social psychology of jury behavior (jury selection, witness preparation, focus group studies, etc.) and "Trial Graphics" services, which include illustrations and animations for courtroom use. Here is a graph illustrating the frequency with which survey respondents employ "Trial Consulting" services, in terms of percentage of cases.

Trial Consulting Service Usage: Full Sample

As you can see from the figure, very few attorneys indicated that they used trial consultants for more than 20% of their cases. The interesting distinction here seems to be between those litigators who sometimes use trial consultants and those that never do. For my sample, approximately 60% of respondents indicated they had ever used a trial consultant. 

There are a couple of reasons to be skeptical of these numbers. First, I would expect that participating in the survey would be more interesting to those lawyers with some familiarity with trial consulting. As such, I thought that most of the respondents would be lawyers who had worked with trial consultants in the past. Second, the publication of the survey was heavily skewed towards people who know me in some capacity. Of those, I would expect that my clients would be particularly inclined to help me out by filling out the survey. (Based on zip codes and other survey responses, I am fairly sure that about a half-dozen respondents are, in fact, clients of mine.) In light of these factors, I believe that these results probably overestimate trial consultant usage in the general population.

I am located in Massachusetts and most of my clients are from New England. This is reflected in the large number of respondents from this region (9). That said, it is gratifying to see that the remainder of the respondents come from all over the United States. I will be discussing regional variations in the data in my next post.

Preliminary Results: Graphics Consulting

I am what I refer to as a "behavioral" trial consultant. While I advise clients on the kinds of exhibits they might employ at trial, and evaluate the utility of the graphs and illustrations they already have, I do not provide trial graphics services. As such, the responses with respect to graphics consulting are probably less skewed by the participation of my own clients. The graph below shows graphics consulting usage for the complete sample.

Graphics Consulting Service Usage: Full Sample

About half of the survey's respondents have used a graphics consultant for at least one case. I think that most of us would expect trial graphics to be used more frequently than trial consulting. The discrepancy between this expectation and my data undoubtedly arises from the participation of many of my clients. Several of these attorneys, especially those doing criminal defense work, have benefitted from my active pro bono practice. They have not had similar access to affordable trial graphics assistance.

Do the Same Lawyers use Both Services?

As I mention above, there is reason to believe that at least a handful of attorneys would make use of trial consulting services, but not graphics consulting ones. Is this a common occurrence? The graph below answers this question.

Joint Usage of Trial and Graphics Consulting Services

As a general rule, lawyers either use litigation consulting services of both types, or they don't use either. Only a few litigators reported using graphics consultants but not trial consultants. I find this result a bit surprising. While I did not ask respondents about the size of their firms, I would expect that this sample is heavily weighted towards small and mid-sized firms, whose attorneys tend to be heavier users of LinkedIn. Lawyers from large firms (many hundreds of lawyers) are unlikely to have found their way to my survey. Such firms handle huge IP and business litigation cases, in which courtroom exhibits are sophisticated and plentiful. The underrepresentation of such litigators from my sample have certainly affected the nature of my results.

Questions to be Explored

These preliminary results are certainly interesting. We have responses from many attorneys who have used a trial or graphics consultant to help with jury trials. Who are they? What kind of work do they do? Where do they practice? These are the more nuanced questions that I will be addressing in my next two posts.

In addition to surveying experience with consultants, I asked respondents about which kinds of services they had hired consultants to perform. I provided an extensive list, including jury selection, witness preparation, illustrations, animations and more. I will explore in a future post trends in the data, with respect to which trial lawyers made use of which services.

So, stay tuned! Same Bat-time, same Bat-channel.

And remember, it's not too late to contribute your own experience to the data. Take the survey here.

Plethora of reasons for defense counsel to argue damages at trial

Hey you! Pay attention!

In the latest issue of The Jury Expert, Jeri Kagel has contributed a very thoughtful article, entitled "Damages: The Defense Attorney's Dilemma." In her article, Jeri presents in stark terms the ambivalence that most civil defense attorneys experience regarding discussing damages before a jury. All of us in the trial consulting profession encounter clients who are stubborn about certain things.

"I never make opening statements." 

"I don't depose opposing experts because I don't want 'em to know what's coming." 

"I don't like my expert to use visual aids because it distracts the jury from what he's saying."

By a large margin, the most common immovable object is, "I don't argue damages at trial."
We trial consultants have read the experimental research on the topic. We have run our own studies. We know that arguing damages at trial is a winning strategy for defense attorneys. It generally has a negligible impact on the liability decision and can have a profound impact on the damage award.

Don't live in fear! Come into the light!

In fact, our frustration with our clients on this point has led many of us to write newsletter articles, editorials and/or blog posts about this very topic.

From myself, "Getting Defense Counsel to talk about damages is like conducting an intervention."

From Aaron Abbott, "New Research on Damage Awards: Do jurors split the difference?"

From Sarah Murray, "Strategies for minimizing damages in high damages cases."

From Jeffrey Frederick, "Searching for rocks in the Channel: Pretesting your case before trial."

I actually managed to convince a client to run a mock trial experiment on the question of arguing damages at trial. We had two panels who all watched the same mock trial for a day-and-a-half. We then separated them for closing arguments. To one group, defense counsel said nothing about damages. To the other, defense counsel added one paragraph, discussing the unreasonableness of plaintiff's award request, and suggesting a more appropriate figure.

Much to my client's surprise, the panel that had heard defense arguments about damages did not once discuss this fact with respect to the liability question. That is, when deciding whether the defendant was liable, not once did anyone point out that defense counsel had raised the damages issue in his closing.

The differences did emerge when we asked the two panels to calculate a damage award for the plaintiff. The panel that had heard a counter-argument on damages from defense counsel chose an award half the size arrived at by the panel that only heard plaintiff's arguments about damages. The provision of a "counter-anchor" for damage award calculations can substantially reduce the size of such an award.

Don't put off until tomorrow what you can argue today.

A significant contribution of Jeri's article in The Jury Expert is a cataloging of opportunities for defense counsel to introduce arguments about damages throughout the trial. The typical question a defense attorney confronts is, "Should I mention damages in my closing argument?" Jeri points out that this dilemma should not be so narrowly defined. Defense counsel should include questions during voir dire about how prospective jurors are likely to think about calculating damage awards. She advocates including arguments in opening statements that help "teach" jurors how to evaluate critically testimony about damages.

A more comprehensive strategy for dealing with the damages issue allows defense counsel to influence juror decisions about damages without having to resort to the "arguing in the alternative" tactic. (My client didn't do anything wrong, but if you decide he did, it wasn't really that bad.) In addition, in jurisdictions that do not permit an ad damnum (specific monetary request from the plaintiff), defense counsel can implement those strategies most appropriate to the local rules.

There is one big lesson one should glean from the experimental literature and the musings of trial consultants. Don't punt on damages. Ceding to the plaintiff total control over the way in which the jury discusses damages is a recipe for disaster.

Defense must play blame game in Rebecca Riley murder trial

The tragedy

Rebecca Riley, age 4, died in the throes of pneumonia, while very heavily medicated on Depakote and Clonidine, intended to treat ADHD and bipolar disorder. Her parents, Carolyn and Michael, are on trial for Rebecca's murder (Read about the trial here). According to prosecutors, Carolyn and Michael routinely lied to doctors in an effort to get all their children prescribed strong drugs, eventually finding a Boston psychiatrist willing to believe them and hand out ever-stronger doses. Prosecutors claim that the Rileys cared only about making their children easy to manage, regardless of any adverse health consequences, and collecting federal disability benefits. Eventually, after being given extremely high dosages of these powerful drugs, even by adult patient standards, Rebecca died in her parents' home.

When a tragedy like this strikes, it is quite natural for ordinary people to want to assign blame. Someone must have been responsible and that person should be held accountable. Why is there such a palpable need to assign blame? It stems from several reinforcing psychological phenomena.

The human need for answers and accountability

The first is a natural aversion to reminders of one's own mortality. We don't like to feel vulnerable. Therefore, when bad things -- deadly things -- happen to others, our brains automatically generate reasons why such threats aren't dangerous to us. A standard response is to generate distinctions between the victim's circumstances and our own. Some distinctions are circumstantial, while others are directed at choices made by the victim or some other responsible party.

A second psychological response to such a tragedy is to shrink back from the randomness of a bad event. We don't like to think that we are not in control of our own lives. We like to think that our own actions and choices will insure our own well-being. Therefore, people tend to overestimate the control that someone else could have exercised over a difficult situation. This is because any bystander would like to believe that, had she been in the same situation, she would have been able to stop the tragedy from occurring.

Finally, as I have written about on a number of occasions, hindsight bias is always at play when rare events take place. Ordinary people have a great deal of trouble processing the true chance of very unlikely events. The numbers just get too small for the brain to easily process. (What does a 1-in-500,000 chance really look like?). Also, the cognitive availability of an event (after all, the event is the focus of the trial) makes it seem more likely to have occurred. This tendency to overestimate the likelihood of an event also results in people overestimating the events predictability and preventability. An odd second-order effect is that the more peculiar the circumstances, the more likely people are to assume that a tragedy could have been averted.

Jurors are not experts in risk assessment. They typically don't have degrees in statistics or bioinformatics. They are ordinary folks, tasked with processing some very foreign circumstances. As such, they will be subject to the kinds of cognitive tendencies outlined above. The Rebecca Riley death is a very strange story. The loss of a young child is every parent's worst nightmare. The world of pediatric psychiatry seems very alien to all of the jurors. All of these factors will combine to make the jurors very eager to find someone to blame for this horrible tragedy. Once they assign blame, they can go back to believing that such a thing could never happen to them.

What should the defense team do?

This is the environment in which Carolyn and Michael Riley are being tried. One defense strategy might be to portray this death to the jury as an unfortunate accident. For the reasons I outline above, I think this will be an extremely tough sell. A better strategy would be to try to deflect blame onto others. Let the jurors have their culprit, but try to convince at least some of them that the culprit is someone other than the defendant.

The defense team took a sensible first step in this direction by requesting separate trials for the two parents. This allows each to deflect responsibility to the other. The key for Carolyn's legal team is to get at least some on the jury to assign more responsibility to her husband than to her. Frankly, based on what we have heard so far, such a tactic would seem more promising for Michael's defense than for Carolyn's.

The second likely candidate for deflected blame is the psychiatrist who prescribed the medication. Dr. Kayoko Kufuji has now testified in Carolyn's trial. While she came across as detached and somewhat clueless, which points to her own negligence, the prosecution did a very good job of showing how Dr. Kufuji relied very heavily on Carolyn Riley's own characterizations of her children, when making her diagnoses. As such, Kufuji's failures seem largely the result of Carolyn Riley's dishonesty and manipulation.

The third candidate for deflected blame, and the one I think is most likely to garner some sympathy with jurors, is Carolyn Riley's own mental state. The prosecutor is trying to paint a picture of a calculating, manipulative mother who happily endangered her children to keep them docile and to collect federal disability checks. The defense might just gain some traction by telling the jury that she was mentally unbalanced. There are official conditions, like Munchausen-by-proxy, where parents imagine or invent illnesses in their children to fulfill a pathological need for attention. Alternatively, the defense could attribute her extreme behavior to the abusive treatment by her husband. Michael Riley has been banned from a prior residence due to violent behavior and Carolyn Riley once took out a restraining order against her husband, ostensibly to protect her children. Under such a scenario, the defense can contend that the system let Carolyn down, enabling behavior that was not only self-destructive, but also endangered the Riley children.

Will it work?

Jurors are generally skeptical of victimization arguments like the one I outline above, but it seems the best strategy in a case like this. There is a documented history of spousal abuse. Many authority figures who interacted with Carolyn and her children failed to take official action. Remember that only one juror needs to be convinced that Carolyn Riley wasn't completely responsible for her own actions to avoid a murder conviction.

The defense strategy needs to be focused on getting Carolyn's sanity into the discussion in the jury room. They need to open the door for those who might be inclined to take pity on her. I rather doubt that the jury will initially be unanimous in its evaluation of her culpability. Arguments will be heated. Tears will be shed. Playing up the defendant's mental instability might not keep her out of jail, but I could see a conviction on a lesser included offense, such as involuntary manslaughter. Given what has transpired in court so far, that would probably be considered a victory for the defense.

Supreme Court absolutely unclear on Constitutionality of absolute disparity test

Another Black man convicted by an all-white jury

Last week, the US Supreme Court heard oral arguments in the case of Berghuis v. Smith. Smith, who had been convicted in Kent County, Michigan of second-degree murder, objected to the pool from which his jury had been chosen. Of the 60 to 100 potential jurors, at most 3 were African American, despite the relevant county having 8% African American population. Smith objected to a local practice of assigning prospective jurors to courthouses near their homes, rather than randomly assigning them within the county. He argued that a trial in a rural courthouse would almost certainly result in a jury pool lacking an appropriate proportion of African Americans, since most of them lived in or near Grand Rapids. Smith also objected to the court's liberal dismissal of jurors for childcare or transportation hardship reasons, which, he argued, disproportionately applied to African American jurors.

The specific practices identified by Smith are important for the Court's evaluation of "systematic exclusion" of minority jurors. These practices, however, are not the focus of this entry. Rather, I am more interested in the Court's revisiting of an old, established and logically bankrupt standard for measuring the representativeness of a jury pool: the absolute disparity test.

The Twisted Logic of the Absolute Disparity Test

Since Swain v. Alabama, the Supreme Court has endorsed a particular formula for determining whether a jury pool is sufficiently representative. Calculate the baseline percentage of a minority group in the county's population. Subtract from this the percentage of minority representatives in jury pools (averaged over some period of time). This is the measure of "absolute disparity." Typically, if this absolute disparity is less than 10%, the jury selection scheme, on its face, does not violate the 6th Amendment's "fair cross-section" requirement.

Smith points out in his brief that it is not possible for a jury selection system to violate the provision unless the minority population of the county is at least 10%. Los Angeles County, for instance, only has a 9.45% black population. As such, under the absolute disparity test, the complete absence of any African Americans on any of LA's jury panels would still be Constitutionally acceptable.

Consider the following county level map of the United States, color-coded for African American population:

Only the counties that are orange or red could ever run afoul of the 6th Amendment cross-section requirement, regardless of their treatment of potential African American jurors. (Of course, any jurisdiction caught with a smoking gun policy of discriminating against minorities in jury selection would still run into 14th Amendment difficulties.) The rest of the country would seem to be free to completely ignore whether minorities ever get called for jury duty.

A True Measure of Representativeness

The alternative to the absolute disparity test is, unsurprisingly, the comparative disparity test. As with the absolute test, the first step is to calculate the percentage of the county that is African American. The next step, however, is to calculate the percentage of African Americans on jury panels as a proportion of the percentage in the general population. For instance, if a county is 8% black and only 3% of people on jury panels are black, the comparative disparity measure is 5/8 or 62.5%. The comparative disparity test is capable of calculating equivalently underrepresentation in both heavily minority counties and those with relatively few minorities.

Any statistician will tell you that a 5% variation in black representation might be caused by any sort of sampling error in a population that is 60% black, but such an absolute variation in a population that is only 10% black is almost certainly the result of systematic forces. The absolute disparity metric can mask what is really going on while the comparative one is more likely to alert interested parties when systemic underrepresentation is taking place.

Justice Scalia is flummoxed by the binomial distribution

After the case went back and forth in the Michigan state courts, Smith brought his case to Federal court. The Sixth Circuit Court of Appeals reasoned that the comparative disparity measure was more appropriately applied in cases like this one, where minority representation in the general population is relatively low.

In oral arguments at the Supreme Court, Justice Breyer seemed to understand the fundamental flaw in the previously controlling formula. He tried to enlighten his brethren by citing an example of an urn with two different colored balls in it. If there were 8% red balls, what are the chances that one would randomly only choose 3 red balls out of 100? This use of the binomial theorem seemed to annoy Scalia, who was unable (or unwilling) to conceive of the problem on this abstract level. He quipped, "But we don't have an urn, do we?"

With logic firmly shoved onto the back burner, most of the other justices seemed content to grill the litigants about the particular procedures (assignment to local courthouses and liberal hardship excuses) highlighted in respondent's brief. Justices Kennedy and Stevens did press Eric Restuccia, the Michigan Solicitor General, to explain when one formula should be used over another. He declined on the grounds that the only question before the court was whether the trial court's interpretation was inherently unreasonable.

Will common sense prevail?

It so rarely does. In this case, however, I don't think that supporters of the comparative disparity test need despair. I expect that the Court will find some way to decide this case on narrow, procedural grounds, upholding the general deference principal articulated in the AEDPA. This does not preclude, however, the justices from speaking to the issue of the correct test in dicta. If enough of the court's members come to appreciate the perverse results that emanate from application of the absolute disparity metric, we might just see a sea change in representativeness analysis for future cases.

Murder Trial to test public attitudes towards mental illness

Preschooler diagnosed with ADHD dies from overmedication: Parents on Trial for Murder

Rebecca Riley was diagnosed with ADHD and a bi-polar disorder before her third birthday. Her treatment was supervised by a respected pediatric psychologist, who prescribed two powerful medications, normally reserved for adults. While not approved for such use by the FDA, such "off label" uses are at the professional discretion of the treating physician, and are not uncommon.

Just over a year later, Rebecca Riley died.

The Massachusetts Medical Examiner concluded that her death was caused by an overdose of her medicine. Her parents, Michael and Carolyn Riley, on trial for her murder, claim that she died from pneumonia contracted shortly before her death. A grand jury refused to indict the girl's physician, concluding that the prescribed dosage was not to blame. Rather, the grand jury indicted the parents for murder on the theory that they intentionally overmedicated their daughter to make her easier to manage.

Read about the trial here.

There is some incriminating evidence that the Rileys will have to counter during their trial. School officials, including the school nurse, reported that the girl was often listless and non-responsive in school, sometimes requiring assistance just to get on or off the school bus. In addition, according to the girl's doctor, Mrs. Riley often requested additional refills of her daughter's medicine, claiming that she had lost or damaged bottles of pills. Finally, the Rileys' other two children have also been diagnosed with similar conditions and are being treated in a similarly aggressive way.


Are all these children really mentally ill?

Without a "smoking gun," per se, the outcome of this case will depend, to a great deal, on public perceptions of pediatric mental illness in the modern era. There are clearly countervailing trends and it remains to be seen how they will balance out.

On the one hand, psychiatry (with a big assist from neuroscience) has come a long way in identifying the physiological and neurological causes (or at least traces) of many previously undiagnosed (or misdiagnosed) conditions. We no longer throw women into insane asylums for "bad humors" or "hysteria." Most members of the public believe that depression actually exists and has a neurological foundation. People now appreciate the hereditary influences on alcoholism and other forms of "abhorrent" behavior. Americans generally recognize that soldiers and witnesses to war really do express post traumatic stress disorders. Mental illness is no longer a taboo subject the way it was even 50 years ago.

On the other hand, the public is clearly skeptical of the increasing propensity of mental health professionals to assign a syndrome name to virtually every form of unusual or undesirable behavior. Most current adults were raised during a time when behavioral problems among students were handled behaviorally, rather than psychologically. Children were expected -- required -- to behave themselves in school and at home. There were certainly allowances made for kids who were fidgety or had difficulty paying attention, but children were generally held accountable for their own actions. The primary objection to the current climate of diagnosing every other kid with some kind of disorder or syndrome is that we are raising a generation of people who won't know how to be responsible for their own decisions and actions. By making excuses for our kids, we are raising a nation of excuse-makers.

Modern pediatric psychiatry and parenting on trial

With these countervailing trends in play, how will jurors in this case perceive of the actions of Rebecca Riley's parents? Some may be inclined to defer to the girl's psychiatrist, excusing the parents for doing the same. They gave her these drugs because their doctor said it was OK. The doctor must have seen Rebecca on a regular basis. If she didn't seem concerned, then the parents had no way of knowing that Rebecca was in any kind of danger.

Other jurors will be skeptical of the parents' motives. A parent can get some doctor to diagnose a kid with some kind of disorder if they push hard enough. These folks obviously wanted to medicate their daughter to make their own lives easier. Why didn't they focus on trying to be better parents?

The wild card in this debate might just be the Rileys' handling of their other children. Jurors are notoriously bad at understanding and processing arguments based on probabilities. Unfortunately for the lawyers in this case, conveying the implications of the diagnoses of Rebecca's siblings requires the jurors to wrestle with such issues.

Consider the numbers: It is estimated that roughly 1 out of every 9 American children has some level of diagnosable ADHD. That is about 11%. One might then conclude that the chance of all three Riley children having ADHD is 0.11 cubed, or 0.0013 -- roughly one in a thousand. (Apparently only about 1/3 of children with ADHD receives the treatment she requires. As such, public perception would be that only about 4% of children have ADHD.) By such logic, it is extremely unlikely that the Riley kids got similarly diagnosed purely by chance. With such astronomical odds against it, the parents must really have been pushing doctors to diagnose ADHD.

Such logic is spurious, however, because it assumes that the incidence of ADHD among siblings are independent events. In truth, due to the shared genetics and physiology of siblings, having a brother or sister with ADHD substantially increases the chance of a child having the disorder.

When one child in a family has ADHD, a sibling will also have the disorder 20% to 25% of the time, says geneticist Susan Smalley, PhD, co-director of the Center for Neurobehavioral Genetics at the David Geffen School of Medicine at UCLA (www.adhd.ucla.edu). About 15% to 40% of children with ADHD will have at least one parent with the same condition.

By this logic, the fact that both of Rebecca's siblings have been diagnosed with ADHD makes it substantially more likely that Rebecca was correctly diagnosed with ADHD. If having one sibling with ADHD would increase the likelihood of Rebecca having it by almost three times, having two afflicted siblings would likely increase the chances five-fold.

This leaves the jurors in a tricky bind. Everything turns on the reliability of the doctor's diagnostic techniques. If her diagnoses of Rebecca's siblings were correct, her diagnosis of Rebecca almost certainly was, too. On the other hand, if her methods were suspect, the likelihood that she properly diagnosed Rebecca's condition, in particular, drops dramatically.

How to explain this to jurors

I have written in other blog entries about the "perils of probability." I also regularly discuss this issue with attorneys to whom I give presentations. It is very difficult to teach enough probability theory to jurors that they actually "get it." Don't expect them to be able to replicate the math. On the other hand, it is possible to provide them with enough insight to appreciate the nature of the results. My advice: Use visual aids to convey comparisons between probabilities. Analogize to decisions-under-risk with which jurors might be familiar. Make sure that your expert witnesses are excellent teachers. Jurors perceive as more reliable those witnesses who are seen as "helpful."

Regardless of the exact presentation strategies a litigator employs, she would always be wise to test its efficacy in advance. You might think your expert's explanation is crystal clear, but you can't be sure until you present it to a group of ordinary people and find out what they think. If your case turns on the "perils of probability," as the Riley case seems to, some sort of pretrial jury study (focus group research) is absolutely essential.

Jury Nullification Requires an Open Door Policy

Mr. Schwartz goes to Woburn

As many of you know, I am very active in the Pro Bono Initiative of the American Society of Trial Consultants. I head up the New England Team and I am working hard to get the word out that there are consultants willing, ready and able to help out with cases involving clients of limited means. As part of this effort, I have arranged with the Middlesex Defense Attorneys (MDA), the folks who administer the Bar Advocates Program for Middlesex County, MA, to hold regular Jury Trial Strategy clinics in Middlesex County courthouses. I hosted the first of these free clinics last week in the Woburn Superior Court. Attendance was great, with lawyers from Suffolk and Worcester Counties, as well as the Middlesex folks.

The cases on which the attorneys wanted advice were quite substantively diverse. They included assault, child molestation, accessory to murder and filing a false police report. One might imagine that this set of cases would have little in common. In fact, there did seem to be a common thread to several cases. While the state had a strong case that the defendant had, in fact, violated the relevant statute, there was something about the defendant, or the circumstances of the crime, that might lead a jury to be reluctant to convict.

The Law vs. The Defendant

That's right, broadly defined, these were nullification cases. Given the broad spectrum of those who read this blog, I should probably define jury nullification. That turns out to be a tricky proposition, in and of itself, and many an academic article, dissertation or book have been dedicated to providing such a definition. Luckily for us, I don't have to convince anyone that my definition of nullification is the best one. It just has to be useful for this blog entry. So, for our purposes, jury nullification is simply a decision by a jury to choose a verdict that is not supported by the facts and the law. Importantly, a jury that is simply mistaken about something is not nullifying. The kind of nullification that most scholars talk about -- and is most relevant here -- involves a jury acquitting a criminal defendant despite its conclusion that the defendant has, in fact, violated the law.

Most legal scholars discuss "jury nullification," which describes the circumstance when an entire jury chooses to acquit a defendant, notwithstanding the evidence to the contrary. Documented cases of jury nullification are few and far between. There are, of course, some famous historical examples. Northern juries often refused to convict people of violating the fugitive slave laws prior to the Civil War. Many juries were reluctant to convict draft card burners during the Vietnam War. Much less well documented, but undoubtedly more common, are instances of "juror nullification," when an individual juror (or several) refuses to vote for conviction. From a defense attorney's perspective, juror nullification is a more realistic goal. It might not be possible to convince an entire jury to show mercy on the defendant, but one can try to give at least a few jurors something to think about.

There are only two states, Maryland and Wisconsin, where an attorney is permitted to mention jury nullification explicitly. This is probably just as well, since most people are very reluctant to admit to themselves that they are circumventing the law, ignoring the judge's instructions and violating their oaths as jurors. Self-perception is a very important part of a person's mental health. No-one likes to think of himself as dishonest, untrustworthy or lawless. As such, if your case turns on your ability to convince jurors to knowingly nullify, you have a very steep uphill battle in front of you.

The Road to Nullification

That said, the situation is not really that dire. Jurors will nullify, so long as you allow them to think they are doing something else. How does this work? Fortunately, criminal law is filled with lots of fuzzy concepts requiring juror interpretation. Which witness was more credible? Did the defendant have the necessary intent? What did the defendant know at the time? Was the defendant under the control of another person? These are just a few examples of the sorts of questions that give jurors a lot of wiggle room. Finally, everything is wrapped up in the concept of "reasonable doubt." Just how sure does a juror have to be to convict? Several studies show that jurors self-report more demanding conceptions of reasonable doubt in cases presented more sympathetically to the defendant. That is, when a juror wants to convict, she employs a fairly lax burden of proof (say, 75% certainty), but when she has reservations, the same juror might employ a much stricter threshold (say, 90%).

So, get out your pencils (or PulsePens or iPhones). Here's what you need to get jurors to nullify (ssshhhhh..... they might hear you):

1) You need a hook.

You'd better have a client or a statute or a case or an extenuating circumstance that is likely to engender reluctance to convict. Whatever hook you have needs to be something you can bring out in court. You can't count on jurors to just assume great things about your client.
Examples of such hooks include:

A) Nothing will be accomplished by sending the defendant to jail.
B) Prosecuting the defendant is unfair, given what has happened to others doing the same things (accomplices perhaps).
C) The defendant is so young that a conviction will ruin his life.
D) The victim is just as responsible (or is a bad person).
E) The state is wasting everyone's time by bringing this case.

2) You need a door.

Now that you have planted the hook, with any luck (and skill on your part), some of the jurors will be looking for a way to escape from convicting your client. The law seems pretty clear and the judge has repeated several times that each juror has sworn an oath to follow the judge's instructions. Whatever is a compassionate juror to do?

You have to provide a way for a juror to find for your client while simultaneously believing that she has done her civic duty to the best of her ability. That is, it is your job to show the juror how to both vote "not guilty" and also go home feeling good about herself. You need to show her the door she can walk through.
Examples of such doors include:

A) A list of forensic evidence that was never collected.
B) The absence of an eyewitness.
C) Inconsistencies in testimony of the victim or other witnesses.
D) Sloppy police work.
E) The importance of any mens rea requirement (No one can know for certain what the defendant was thinking).
F) The ambiguity of language in the statute

All of these elements are meant to introduce uncertainty in the minds of jurors. You have just shown them the door. Now you just need to give them permission to open it. That is where the reasonable doubt requirement (and the burden of proof) comes in. It is essential that you emphasize in closing arguments both that the burden is completely on the state to prove its case and that the reasonable doubt standard is a very demanding one. Be sure to point out that the state must prove every element of the offense beyond a reasonable doubt.

Obviously, a strict liability crime affords fewer "outs" for your sympathetic jurors. Hopefully, the state's case has at least one weak link you can pry at. Your argument only needs to pass the sniff test -- it doesn't have to be persuasive. Your job is to provide ammunition for those jurors who are on your side to begin with.

If you've done your job, a juror who doesn't want to convict your defendant can, with a straight face, explain to her fellow jurors that, while she might think the defendant is guilty, the DA just didn't prove the case beyond a reasonable doubt. "Gee folks, I really want to vote with you, but I just can't do so in a good conscience."

3) Don't push.

Jurors are constantly speculating about things they know nothing about. What else could the police have done? Did that witness get a deal? What was girlfriend's real relationship with the defendant's mother? Would we really be here today if the defendant were white? It is this speculation that allows a defense attorney to encourage nullification just by emphasizing the uncertainty in the process. The more unsure are the jurors, the more they will speculate about things not in evidence.

That said, jurors distinctly resent being told what conclusions to draw from the evidence (or lack thereof). When people believe that their choices are being dictated by others, they tend to experience reactance, which is a tendency to rebel against the perceived loss of autonomy. Suddenly, the options that have been taken away seem more appealing (Just think of any teenager who has been forbidden from doing something).

Now that you have your jurors looking for a way out and you have offered them an exit, you need to resist the temptation to connect the dots for them. A juror might be sympathetic to a high school kid who got caught sharing pot with his friends. That juror might be inclined to use uncertainty about who originally purchased the pot to avoid voting guilty on a distribution charge. But you have to let the juror come to that conclusion on her own. If you tell her to take those specific steps, she will question your motivation. She might feel manipulated. She might face derision from other jurors for having "bought what the defense was selling."

You can show your jurors the door, but they have to walk through it on their own.

Is this really Nullification?

This really boils down to semantics at this point. I helped a lawyer secure a hung jury (with no retrial) in a statutory rape case involving two teenagers. The complaining witness's account was full of holes and inconsistencies. Since statutory rape is a strict liability crime, however, the jury only needed to conclude that the two had sex -- ever -- to find the defendant guilty. Clearly, extralegal factors, such as the defendant's age, the asymmetry of the situation, tepid support for such laws and the absence of violence played a role in the jurors' evaluations of the case. So, that would suggest labeling this a case of jury nullification. On the other hand, had the state's case been ironclad, I am convinced the jury would have voted guilty. So, the verdict was really the result of a delicate interplay of the strength of the case and the jurors' predictable ambivalence about the trial. Our strategic victory was successfully playing one off against the other.

Don't wait for mediation to fail before calling trial consultant

More Great Stuff in The Jury Expert

The most recent issue of The Jury Expert has just come out. For those who are still in the jury trial dark ages, The Jury Expert is the online publication of The American Society of Trial Consultants. It has quickly become the go to source for expertise on jury behavior, jury trial strategy and recent developments in the American Jury system. Any litigator who doesn't subscribe just isn't that interested in winning at trial. 'Nuff said.

How to Win a Mediation

In the November issue, Melissa Gomez has contributed a very nice article on the importance of conducting jury research prior to mediation. Melissa focuses on a particular aspect of jury research -- and a very important one -- figuring out what your case is worth. Any settlement discussion takes place in the shadow of a jury trial. What offer should you make? What counter offer should you accept? The answers depend, of course, on what you think a jury will do. Information is power. If you understand better than your opponent what a jury will do at trial, you will "win" at mediation. To this end, Melissa particularly advocates focus group research targeted at the damage award calculations that jurors will undertake. She also refers to these as "valuation studies."

She points out another advantage of such studies. Sometimes, a lawyer has to convince her own client of what a case is worth. Mediation is only successful if client and attorney walk into the room on the same page. Melissa offers a nice example of a case in which pre-mediation research provided the client with realistic expectations of how a jury would react to a case. This permitted the lawyer to guide the client to a sensible settlement.

Ignore the data at your own peril

Melissa also offers a couple of cautionary tales about litigants who chose to proceed to trial notwithstanding study results that suggested doing so was a bad idea. Remember: It doesn't matter what you think the case is worth. It only matters what a jury thinks the case is worth. This does raise an issue that we trial consultants often encounter. For jury research to be successful, it is important to have buy-in from both litigants and litigators. While numbers are always involved, we are generally dealing with small enough samples that this is qualitative research. The trial consultant's expertise is critical to interpreting those results. If a lawyer, or her client, does not respect that expertise, the time and expense of a jury study will be for naught. If you treat your trial consultant as a glorified project manager, you will be squandering the value of your jury research.

It's not just about the numbers

Melissa has done a nice job of illustrating the value of pre-mediation jury research on case valuation. This is not, however, the be all and end all of trial consulting for mediation. A mediation is not a trial, but it is a legal process. It has its own rules, ebb and flow, and opportunities for information exchange and argument. In the same way that it is critical to have a solid presentation strategy for a jury trial, it is vital to have a game plan for mediation. If you plan to just show up and hear what the other side has to say, you are wasting an opportunity.

Typically, each side has an opportunity for an "opening statement" to the mediator. Each side can bring in exhibits, reports and data. In addition, this is a lawyer's one real opportunity to speak directly to the client on the other side of the case. A good litigator will use that opportunity to her advantage. I discuss how a trial consultant can help a litigator prepare for some of these other aspects of mediation in an article I wrote for Lawyers Weekly. While there is some overlap with the themes in Melissa's Jury Expert article, there are several other nuggets of wisdom, as well. Check it out!

Boston Terrorism case will prove a test of Terror Management Theory

On October 21, Acting U.S. Attorney for Massachusetts, Michael K. Loucks, announced that Tarek Mehanna, a 27 year old Sudbury man, had been arrested on suspicion of terrorism. Last year, Mehannna had been charged with lying to authorities in conjunction with the investigation of another terrorism suspect, Daniel J. Maldonado.

Mehanna and his coconspirators apparently never got particularly close to actually carrying out any terrorist acts. They are alleged to have travelled to several foreign countries in search of training by extremist Islamist groups, but were never accepted. They are also alleged to have failed in their attempts to secure weapons for an attack on U.S. soil. As such, Mehanna's alleged terrorist activities were largely aspirational. U.S. criminal law is very clear in not punishing people for "thinking bad thoughts," regardless of how reprehensible those thoughts might be. Prosecutors are faced with proving that Mehanna actually took specific steps to operationalize concrete terrorist acts. This scenario is almost certain to result in Mehanna's attorneys refusing to accept a plea, insisting instead to take the case to trial.

What then might we expect from a Mehanna terror trial?

One thing is certain: Terror management theory (TMT) will play a major role in how jurors resolve the case.

What is Terror Management Theory?

Pioneered by Ernest Becker in the 1970s, Terror Management Theory (TMT) concerns how people manage fears of their own mortality. Here is TMT theory in a nutshell: Every person has a particular world view, comprised of their beliefs, values, experiences, and choices. Each individual requires periodic confirmation and support for his world view. Such support allows him to feel good about himself and live comfortably with the choices he has made. When a person is confronted by his own mortality, it emphasizes his fragile and limited existence on earth, creating a great sense of unease. Facing such emotional stress, a normal person will require more reassurance than usual and will typically take refuge in the company of those who share his world view. He will defend that world view more rigorously than usual and will view more negatively attitudes and behaviors that conflict with that world view.

An excellent review of Terror Management Theory, and its application to jury trials, by Joel Lieberman and Jamie Arndt, appeared earlier this year in The Jury Expert, the online publication of the American Society of Trial Consultants. Be sure to check out the two commentaries by trial consultants that follow the article. I highly recommend that any litigator read this article, as the theory is relevant across a wide variety of cases. Given what a good job the authors did in explaining TMT, I won't go into much more detail here.

I would only ask my readers to consider Americans' responses to the events of September 11, 2001. People shouted their patriotism from the rooftops. Men and women joined the military in record numbers. Politicians sported American Flag pins and the President's approval ratings skyrocketed. People were terrified and they took every step possible to shore up the element of their world view that had been most threatened: their Americanism. Congress even went so far as to rename French fries Freedom fries in response to perceived inadequate support from the French government. It was the ultimate case of rallying 'round the flag.

The Jury Expert article includes references to dozens of studies confirming the effects of TMT and does a nice job of reviewing a few examples. It is quite remarkable how much a person's behavior can be affected by simply thinking about something morbid for a few minutes.

Terrorism and TMT

I cannot imagine a crime that calls up concerns for one's own mortality more than terrorism. The more that a juror finds herself obsessing about death, in response to the details of a terrorism trial, the more punitive she will likely be to a defendant whose beliefs and actions directly threaten her own world view.

Typically, a change of venue is only granted when a judge is convinced that pervasive pretrial publicity has made it virtually impossible to impanel an impartial jury. While the Mehanna case has certainly received a great deal of publicity already, it will be an uphill struggle for Mehanna's lawyers to secure a change of venue. The U.S. Attorney's office will argue that the publicity has been national in scope, so that the defendant will face similar exposure in other venues. But Mehanna faces a more subtle challenge associated with being tried close to home. When prospective jurors learn of the charges against Mehanna, they will realize that it was their own lives that were in danger. From what I understand, the defendant is accused of planning to bomb local shopping malls. So, every prospective juror will realize that she might have been one of his victims. This will ramp up obsession with mortality and morbid concerns, thereby ratcheting up juror disapproval of Mehanna's world view. As the jurors dig in, in defense of all they hold dear, Mehanna will be seen as an enormous threat. While a jury in some other part of the country would certainly also view these alleged terrorist plans as reprehensible, such jurors would not necessarily experience a similar sense of mortality and dread.

There is one byproduct of TMT that might work in Mehanna's favor. One item that is seen as emblematic of "American Justice" is a firm commitment to fair procedures. Americans identify strongly with the "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard. They believe that one of the things that makes our country great is that we do everything "by the book" and in a "transparent" way -- not like those "crazies" in the Middle East. As such, jurors in this case are likely to be extremely careful to follow all court rules and judicial instructions. Juries in prior terrorism cases have ruled in favor of defendants when they have perceived that those defendants didn't really get a fair trial or when the evidence has been sketchy.

So, while jurors in this case will feel strong psychological pulls to be punitive towards Mr. Mehanna, they will also feel a strong need to dot all their i's and cross all their t's and generally do everything by the book. Because that is the American Way. The only question is whether these conscious efforts cans overcome natural subconscious tendencies to punish a man who has made jurors feel exposed and vulnerable.

What is a defense attorney to do?

This will obviously be a tough case to defend. That said, there a few things Mr. Mehanna's attorneys can do to mitigate the negative consequences of TMT and use its positive features to their advantage.

1. Make sure to ask prospective jurors about their emotional reactions to hearing about the arrest for the first time. Anyone who replies, "I thought, 'Oh my God! That could have been me in one of those malls!'" is of concern.

2. Spend a lot of time in opening and closing emphasizing the dimensions of procedural fairness built into the American criminal justice system. Burden of proof. Evidentiary rules. Reasonable doubt standard.

3. Remind jurors of their obligations as Americans to follow those rules.

4. Characterize the defendant as an "American who was led astray." It is key to convince jurors that the defendant is not the threat. The threat is those who would seek to use someone like the defendant as a tool in their diabolical plans.

5. During the jury selection process, make good use of some authoritarianism index, in an effort to identify those prospective jurors most likely to give vent to their punitive tendencies.

Moving Forward

Mr. Mehanna's most recent court hearing, on his detention status, was postponed until November 12, so that his attorneys could have more time to prepare. I have a feeling that this case will take a long time to move through the trial process. As it does so, I will be sure to provide updates on this blog, along with commentary on any features of the trial that seem noteworthy.

More Perils of Probability

British statistician, geneticist and probability guru, Peter Donnelly, recently gave a TED lecture about some of the common mistakes that people -- all people -- make when considering some fairly common probability scenarios. Peter is a very good speaker and present a self-deprecating wit that I find appealing. He is also very good at explaining what he does.

I was surprised, and delighted, to discover that he used as his primary example a scenario virtually identical to the one that I regularly employ to introduce lawyers to the perils of probability in tort litigation. The example involves a hypothetical person who receives a positive result to an HIV test. The underlying question is: "What are the chances the person is actually HIV positive?" My version of the example was derived from actual statistics concerning the incidence of HIV in a particular population (white women with no symptoms or risk factors). While Peter's example involves numbers that run in roughly the same ballpark, it is unclear whether he based them on real data or fabricated them for ease-of-use. Peter focuses his talk on the fact that such probabilities are hard to work with and that people are known to make particular kinds of mistakes when interpreting them. While I recognize such difficulties in my own presentation, I go on to focus on presentation strategies litigators can use to help juries correctly interpret probabilities. Anyway, it must be a really great example!

I am including here both Peter Donnelly's TED lecture and my own presentation slides on the topic. Peter gets to the common example about 40% of the way through his talk and you can find my treatment about 2/3 of the way through my slides (for those disinclined to watch both all the way through).

First Peter's talk.



Now, mine (No voice-over, I'm afraid. Feel free to invite me to present to your firm or lawyers group).

[Download presentation or view online]

The basic lesson to be learned here is that jurors are just not very good at math. Few have any experience with probability theory, especially anything related to very low-probability events. As I have discussed before, in relation to hindsight bias, tort cases typically stem from such extremely unlikely events. When jurors are faced with information processing tasks that are beyond their abilities, they typically resort to cognitive short-cuts. The most common of these is to use "intuition." Unfortunately, as Peter Donnelly so astutely illustrates, our intuitions about probabilities can often be completely off-the-mark. But the evaluation of reasonable care requires an accurate evaluation of the risks facing the care-taker. Litigators, then, have a Herculean task in getting jurors to understand the true underlying probabilities of a case.

I believe that two basic strategies are critical to getting jurors to appreciate the true risks faced by parties in a tort dispute. The first is reasoning by analogy. It is important to connect the choice problem faced by a decision-maker to something with which jurors are themselves familiar. Second, visual learning is key. Represent probabilities in a way that allows an average person to just "get it" by visual inspection. Ask yourself whether your exhibit passes the ol' "interocular impact test."

Finally, I want to point readers who, might not have watched Peter Donnelly's presentation all the way through, to a very interesting and disturbing example he presents at the end of his talk. In England, a woman was convicted of having murdered her two children, both of whom died of "crib death." The jury was largely convinced to convict on the testimony of an expert who testified that the chance she was innocent was simply the probability of any baby dying of crib death squared. That is, the expert chose to ignore the obvious dependence of the two events. If environmental or genetic factors made it more likely that one child would die in this way, those same factors would, of course, increase the likelihood that another child in the same family would also die in this way. That is, the fact that the defendant's two children died of crib death actually made it less likely that either resulted from foul play -- exactly the opposite of the expert's testimony. And the scariest thing is that not a single person in the courtroom called him on it. No one appreciated the enormous error in reasoning that was being committed, resulting in an innocent woman being sent to prison. Fortunately, her conviction was later reversed on appeal and the expert in question was discredited.

So, in your next case, make sure that (1) you have the probability theory right, (2) your expert does, too, (3) your expert is prepared to teach the jury how to evaluate such probabilities, and (4) you support such efforts with well-designed visual aids, both to reinforce your expert's testimony and also to guide jurors who might remain "confused" by the math.

Some Podcasts Fill a Niche, Others Miss the Mark

A couple of weeks ago, I posted a LinkedIn poll about work-related podcast listening habits. I had a few reasons for being curious about this question. First, as I am considering hosting a podcast on jury issues, I wanted to get a sense of my potential audience. Second, while podcasts clearly comprise part of the "social marketing" landscape, they have received much less attention in the press (and on blogs, from what I can tell) than blogs, twitter feeds and social networking sites. Finally, I wondered whether the demographic trends typically associated with technological adoption and Web 2.0 applied similarly to podcast usage, especially given the ubiquitousness of iPods and other digital audio devices.

Using a LinkedIn Poll

A LinkedIn poll has certain advantages and other disadvantages. The main advantage is that one can easily broadcast its existence to one's entire LinkedIn network. In my case, that is about 250 people. In addition, one can post the link to the poll on the discussion boards of any LinkedIn groups to which one belongs. (I did so for about 5 groups). LinkedIn users who just like checking out the ongoing polls can also find and answer any poll they choose. Regular LinkedIn updates about recent activity of connections can serve to remind (or annoy) people that the poll is ongoing. Finally, LinkedIn provides a unique URL for each poll so it is possible to invite people to see/take a poll from Twitter, a blog or a website.

On the downside, a LinkedIn poll is limited to a single question with a list of discreet answers. So, there is no way to ask a series of nested questions or even to collect poll-specific data about respondents. Also, only LinkedIn members can answer a free poll. For a fee, LinkedIn will expand the subject pool outside of the LinkedIn community. Back on the positive side, there is an opportunity for respondents to leave comments.

Work-related Podcast Usage



As you can see from the graph above, I received 23 responses. Not exactly a deluge. As many of you in my network can attest, I tried pretty hard to encourage people to take the poll. It is hard to know whether the majority of folks who chose not to participate are people with zero interest or experience with podcasts, or simply weren't willing to take the few minutes to complete the poll. Hey, time is money. In something like this, the temptation to free-ride on the efforts of others is pretty high. I plan to leave the poll active for a while longer to see whether this blog entry inspires a few more people to take the poll. (<-- Hint, Hint)

So, what do we make of these results? Well, the first thing that stood out for me is that over half of the respondents indicated that they rarely or never listened to work-related podcasts. And this is from the small set of people sufficiently interested in the topic to take the poll. This suggests that the universe of available podcasts is not serving well the needs of the professional community. Most of my professional contacts are connected in some way to the legal profession, so the results are likely most relevant in that arena. Perhaps doctors and painters and chimney sweeps all have great podcasts. But, despite the recent proliferation of law-related podcasts, they don't seem to have developed a loyal following (at least according to my very limited sample).

All is not lost. Almost a third of my respondents indicated that they listen to a podcast related to their jobs weekly. This probably means that they actually subscribe to at least one podcast, perhaps more. Some podcasts produce new episodes weekly, but it is more common for new episodes to come out monthly. So, in order to listen weekly, it is probably necessary to subscribe to a few different ones. One person said that s/he listened to a work-related podcast every day. Boy, would I like to know what business that person is in.

Given the bimodal nature of the distribution, it seems that the podcast market hasn't really evolved to serve most professionals' needs. That said, certain niches must be getting served pretty well. I wonder if, during this early period in the market's evolution, related podcasts operate more as complements than substitutes. That is, a critical mass of podcasts on a topic needs to emerge so that professionals in that field see podcasts as a viable method of keeping up-to-date on industry developments.

Demographic Differences

Given the small sample size, these results are really only suggestive. I wouldn't dream to generalize from what we have here. First, there did not seem to be any real difference with respect to gender. In my sample, the heavy podcast listener was a woman. On the other hand, somewhat more women than men reported never listening to podcasts. Things are a little more interesting with respect to age, especially given the conventional wisdom about generational differences in technology adoption.



Well, as predicted, our podcast addict was a youngster. On the other hand, the rest of our heavy podcast listeners were over 35. The 35 - 55 age group made up more than half of our sample and their listening habits were all over the map. One lesson seems to be that one should not target professional podcasts exclusively to gen-x or gen-y types. Professionals of all ages are savvy enough to make good use of this technology (keeping in mind that everyone who took this poll was already savvy enough to be on LinkedIn).

What next?

I guess I am a little surprised that more respondents didn't indicate that they were podcast fans. This begs the question of what more systematic market research has discovered regarding podcast usage. There is a good longitudinal study of podcast listeners conducted by Bridge Ratings here. They actually revised down their estimates of podcast listening growth (2006 estimates compared to 2005 ones). On the other hand, a nice longitudinal study of social media usage by Inc. 500 companies, conducted by two UMass researchers, shows that the percentage of these companies that produced podcasts increased from 11% in 2007 to 21% in 2008. A nice predictive study of podcast usage is summarized here, with many graphs and tables.

I think that the podcast market is suffering from a matching problem. It is still unclear which type of content is effectively conveyed through podcasting. As video podcasting develops (I predict that most will be video within two years), the answer to this question might change dramatically. Podcasting will probably evaporate in certain fields where the demand just seems too weak. On the other hand, certain fields will have full podcast immersion, with a wide variety of high quality programming to choose from. Got any ideas about which industries will be in which category? Then, submit a comment below and put your predictive talents to the test.

One thing is certain. A lot more market research about podcast listening habits needs to be done. Right now, it seems like everyone is surfing the wave of technology adoption, firing off podcasts because everyone else is doing it. Eventually, good data will have to replace conjecture about where the podcast market is heading.

Avoiding the Black Swan Effect at trial

Nicholas Nassim Taleb's book, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, introduced a wide lay audience to the the "black swan effect," whereby people tend to overgeneralize based upon extremely rare, but impactful events. More generally, in psychology, this is referred to hindsight bias. The basic idea is that highly improbable events tend to get noticed. They stick in the brain and are easily accessed mentally. As such, people tend to underestimate just how improbable the event was. In addition, most people are really crummy at comprehending either really large or really small numbers. So, for example, an average person can't really distinguish the difference between a one-in-a-million chance and a one-in-ten-million-chance. Both are pretty much "never gonna happen." By contrast, people are pretty good at appreciating the difference between a coin flip and a one-in-twenty chance. Mathematically, the two comparisons are identical. The first event in each pairing is ten times more likely to happen than the second one.

Recently, Taleb has teamed up with Daniel G. Goldstein, and Mark W. Spitznagel to apply the black swan effect to corporate risk management in an article in the Harvard Business Review, enititled, "The Six Mistakes Risk Managers make in Risk Management." The focus of the article is to help managers recognize hindsight bias in their own decision-making. They caution these risk managers not to think they could have predicted these events from the past. Not should they use them to predict the future.

Given how much difficulty even seasoned risk managers have overcoming hindsight bias, it should not be surprising that ordinary people find the problem almost insurmountable. The problem is that many torts are the results of Black Swan events. A very improbable event takes place, adversely impacting someone in a profound way. That person sues and some company finds itself defending a failure to predict and prevent the unforeseeable. So, a risk manager also needs to understand this issue because it profoundly affects her company's performance in court.

I wrote an article on how (poorly) jurors handle issues of statistics and probabilities for The Jury Box, back when it was a newsletter. In addition, I have given several presentations on this topic, some slides for which can be found here. Given the timeliness of the topic (Really, it's timeless), I am reprinting that original article below. I hope you find it instructive.

A jury trial can be Risky Business (Don’t worry – not all issues will make reference to Tom Cruise). In addition to the inherent uncertainty associated with putting your case in the hands of a group of laypersons, a jury trial is complicated by the fact that jurors themselves are notoriously unreliable at evaluating risk. In this issue I focus on how juries handle probabilities, risks and cost-benefit analyses.

If it weren’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all
Most litigation involves a dispute over an unlikely event. A patient develops an allergic reaction, brakes fail, a grape rolls down an aisle to precisely the place where a little old lady is about to take her next step. These low-probability events turn into legal questions of foresee-ability, reasonable care and adequate notice, all of which turn, to one degree or another, on just how unlikely the jury believes the event to have been.

One common problem that jurors have evaluating probabilities is known as hindsight bias. When someone learns of a low-probability event having actually occurred, there is a tendency to treat it as if were much more likely than it was. If a juror places greater likelihood on the event, she will believe it to have been more easily anticipated and will assign greater urgency to guarding against it. The result is that defendants are often blamed for not anticipating and preventing truly freak accidents.

An alarming second order effect is that the more bizarre the circumstances, the greater the hindsight bias. This may be because really weird circumstances are more easily remembered and recalled by jurors.

One strategy for overcoming hindsight bias is to argue by analogy to something with which jurors are likely to be familiar. The problem usually confronts defense counsel, so it is also wise to choose an analogy for which jurors might feel some responsibility. For instance, if one argues that an allergic reaction to a medication is as common as an automobile accident caused by a sneezing driver, jurors may conclude that the situation was not very dangerous, given that they never pull over their cars just because they need to sneeze.

All costs with no benefits
The economic theory of reasonable care in tort goes back at least as far as Learned Hand’s opinion in Carroll Towing. A cost-benefit analysis showing that all economically efficient precautions were taken is supposed to be a defense to a charge of negligence. Many industry regulations make such calculations mandatory. One might imagine, then, that jurors would look favorably upon companies who perform cost-benefit analyses. One would be dead wrong. Typically, whatever appreciation that jurors might have for a company thinking hard about safety is overwhelmed by their discomfort in reducing human pain and suffering to a mathematical calculation, especially one involving money.

Several empirical studies have shown that defendants are almost always punished for performing cost-benefit analyses, regardless of how clearly the calculations support the measures taken. Plaintiffs’ attorneys are wise to play up the cold, callous, calculating nature of the defendant’s methods. By contrast, defense counsel has the difficult task of convincing the jury that her client cares about safety without the testimony being reduced to probabilities, statistics and dollar signs. Again, reasoning by analogy is often the best policy, alerting jurors to the many cost-benefit calculations they perform in their every day lives, with a focus on those costly precautions most people choose not to take. For instance, it is clearly safer for children to wear helmets on playgrounds but almost no parent makes her children wear them.

It is also worth noting that companies are actually punished for placing a higher value on human life in their cost-benefit analyses. While this high value might help marginally in avoiding liability, it creates a costly anchor when jurors are calculating damages.

The zero risk fallacy
Many jurors mistakenly believe that it is possible to make products, services and treatments absolutely safe. They conclude that any risk of loss or injury is unacceptable. They have essentially adopted a strict liability standard despite the law to the contrary. Others have simply decided that manufacturers or service providers, rather than consumers, should be responsible for all safety precautions because of perceived wealth or knowledge advantages.

Many jurors are troubled by the idea of bad things happening to innocent people. Some conclude that the world is unfair and that the poor victim is entitled to be compensated for her loss. The only source from which the jury can take money is the defendant, so liability is attached despite conclusions that the defendant did nothing wrong. The inadmissibility of evidence of insurance can exacerbate this problem since jurors often assume that the absence of any mention of insurance means that the plaintiff had none.

Plaintiffs face their own risks
Juror difficulties with risk and probabilities do not always benefit plaintiffs. Plaintiffs who are engaged in risky activities are sometimes entitled to compensation because defendant’s conduct unacceptably increased the risk. Jurors sometimes conclude that risk-takers implicitly assume all responsibility for their well-being. For instance, a juror might think, “Hey, skiing is a dangerous sport. If you get hurt, you have no-one to blame but yourself.” A plaintiff will have trouble convincing such a juror that the ski-binding manufacturer is liable for her injuries.

In most cases, both parties have behaved imperfectly. Some jurors implicitly adopt a contributory negligence rule, whereby any fault by the plaintiff bars compensation. I recommend that counsel make sure that the jury is given a very clear instruction on negligence. Ideally, the jury should be given the instruction in advance of opening arguments (an increasingly common practice, endorsed by the ABA). The idea is to get the jury to focus as quickly as possible on the defendant’s conduct.
I also recommend that plaintiff’s counsel consider a “de-fanging” strategy, whereby the plaintiff owns up to any personal mistakes. This will prevent defense counsel from raising the plaintiff’s failings in a manner that suggests to the jury that they somehow excuse the defendant’s conduct. If the plaintiff conveys confidence in the legitimacy of her claim despite a full appreciation of her own shortcomings, the jury is more likely to do so, as well.

Identifying Potential Leaders Critical to Jury Selection

Leaders become forepersons and forepersons control deliberations

In the most recent issue of The Jury Expert, the excellent online journal of jury behavior, published by the American Society of Trial Consultants, Barbara Bushell has contributed a very nice piece on how "leaders" affect jury deliberations and verdict choice.

Barbara begins by identifying some of the common characteristics of jury leaders (high status jobs, more formal attire, perceived expertise, etc.) and then discusses the kinds of behaviors engaged in by such people that often get them chosen as jury forepersons. I won't spend much time on these points here, but I recommend that you read the article. Among other things, Barbara reviews (and cites) some of the important research articles from which we have learned so much about leadership on juries.

What I find particularly salient is how leaders can exercise control over jury deliberations, especially when handed the title of "foreperson." Barbara mentions several of the levers at the foreperson's disposal. A foreperson controls the floor, determining who can speak when. She calls for votes when she thinks the time is most appropriate -- perhaps when she suspects she has a majority of support. The foreperson often controls whether the deliberation will be evidence-driven or verdict-driven (something I have discussed previously in The Jury Box), with all of the attending consequences of the two modes. Barbara also cites several studies confirming the influence of a foreperson's private evaluation of compensatory damages on the final award chosen by the jury.

Not All Leaders are Created Equal

Barbara goes on to make a distinction between instrumental leaders and emotional leaders, something I hadn't really thought much about before. An instrumental leader is someone who is respected and/or looked up to for a particular skill or attribute regarded as important to the case. It might be someone who takes thorough notes, or someone who has served on several juries before. Of course, jurors with case-specific expertise are often perceived as instrumental leaders.

An emotional leader, however, is someone who helps the jurors get through the process. She might be the queen of positive reinforcement, or the first to recommend a compromise that everyone can live with. Such a leader is seen as a positive influence on the deliberations, but she may not be especially knowledgeable or astute.

I think this distinction between leadership types can be quite important. An instrumental leader is more likely to have an agenda. Her influence is likely to be unidirectional. On the other hand, an emotional leader is more likely to lead the jury towards moderation.

A couple more points about leaders

I would recommend that all of you read Barbara's article. You might even find yourself consulting some of the empirical studies directly. I want to take just a little time here to add a couple of items not covered in the Jury Expert piece.

The first is that leaders (especially instrumental ones) are also likely to be unyielding in their opinions about the correct verdict. As I have written about in a couple of my recent posts, juries rarely reach unanimous consensus, even in those cases where they render unanimous verdicts. This means that some jurors have compromised their true opinions about the case to vote with everyone else (conforming dissenters). The folks most likely to be leaders are not going to be those vote-switching jurors. This means that it is especially important during jury selection to figure out not only whether a prospective juror is likely to perceive your case sympathetically, but also whether she is a stick-to-her-guns leader type or a wishy-washy follower type. You have a limited number of peremptory challenges. Your case can probably survive a non-supporter who doesn't make waves. Save your challenges for the obvious leaders, whenever you are concerned about which way they will lead.

My final point has to do with the methods by which juries vote. The jury foreperson will almost certainly control this procedural item. Since a jury is not instructed on how to take votes, the foreperson really is free to conduct voting however she pleases. Will the foreperson call for a secret ballot? Perhaps she'll go around the table. Maybe she's left-handed and will go around the table in the other direction! A strong-willed foreperson might suggest a verdict and challenge anyone to disagree (equivalent to calling for unanimous consent). I have written previously about the strategic consequences of these various types of jury voting. Adding this concern to the others raised by Barbara Bushell in her article, it really is critical that likely leaders on the jury be on your side of the ledger.